The Unpredictable Nobel: How Machado Emerged as the Winner

In keeping with its reputation for unpredictability, the Nobel Peace Prize for 2025 has been awarded to María Corina Machado, a choice that confounded those focused on the high-profile candidacy of Donald Trump. Her win is a classic example of the Nobel committee looking past the obvious frontrunners.
While global media attention was fixed on Trump, particularly after his Gaza ceasefire intervention, Machado was consistently working to unify the Venezuelan opposition. It was this quiet, foundational work that ultimately caught the committee’s eye.
The committee’s chair, Jorgen Watne Frydnes, lauded her as a “key, unifying figure,” signaling that her success in building a cohesive movement from a fragmented base was a critical factor. This highlights the committee’s appreciation for the difficult, behind-the-scenes work of peace-building.
Disappointed, the White House released a statement that focused on Trump’s own unique abilities, claiming “there will never be anyone like him.” The message was a clear attempt to pivot from the unexpected loss to a celebration of his perceived singular greatness.
Machado’s victory serves as a powerful reminder that the Nobel Peace Prize is not a popularity contest nor is it swayed by media hype. The committee continues to make its decisions based on its own specific, and often unpredictable, interpretation of Alfred Nobel’s will.