Trump’s Litmus Test: Hold the Line on Taiwan or Appease Xi?

President Trump is facing a defining foreign policy litmus test: will he hold the line on decades of U.S. policy toward Taiwan, or will he appease Chinese President Xi Jinping? The choice comes in the form of a direct request from Beijing for the U.S. to formally “oppose” Taiwanese independence, a significant departure from the current, more ambiguous stance.
The demand seeks to replace the carefully crafted phrase “do not support,” which has been the bedrock of U.S. policy for generations. This language has allowed the U.S. to maintain a delicate equilibrium, supporting Taiwan’s democracy without formally recognizing it as a separate nation. A shift to “oppose” would shatter this balance.
The issue has been thrust into the spotlight ahead of a planned summit between Trump and Xi, where trade issues are expected to dominate. This has fueled speculation that Trump might be willing to trade a change in diplomatic language for concessions from Beijing on economic matters, a scenario that deeply worries Taiwan and its supporters.
The Trump administration’s track record of transactional diplomacy and abrupt policy reversals adds to the uncertainty. Officials have already demonstrated a willingness to put sensitive issues, like tech security curbs, on the negotiating table with China, making the prospect of a concession on Taiwan seem plausible.
Analysts are urging the administration to recognize the long-term strategic costs of such a move. Caving to Beijing’s demand would be interpreted as a sign of American weakness and decline. It would not only jeopardize the security of Taiwan but also erode the trust of other U.S. allies who rely on Washington’s steadfastness.