The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected moderate economic growth for Mexico, estimating a 1.5% increase in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026, followed by a 1.8% rise in 2027. This outlook reflects a combination of sustained export growth and stable investment, although ongoing uncertainties related to trade agreements may hamper economic activity.
Mexico’s economic prospects are bolstered by its expanding exports in computers and electronic components, driven by robust demand for data center infrastructure and artificial intelligence technologies in the United States. The country’s well-established manufacturing capacity and integration into North American supply chains have cemented its role as a key supplier of technology products.
While the IMF notes that Mexico’s macroeconomic conditions remain largely stable, it highlights the uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) as a potential risk to economic growth. This uncertainty could impact trade dynamics and, consequently, the broader economic outlook.
Inflation is anticipated to reach 3.8% by the end of 2026, slightly above the Bank of Mexico’s target of 3%. Despite these inflationary pressures, the IMF believes that external demand will continue to provide significant support to the Mexican economy.
Overall, while Mexico faces some challenges related to trade agreements and inflation, the country is expected to maintain a trajectory of modest growth, underpinned by its strategic position in the global technology supply chain.